29 oktober 2019
On 15 October 2019 the French President Macron blocked the start of negotiations with the candidates North-macedonia and Albania that should lead to their admission to the European Union. He was criticized by many, included by the president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, who called it a historic mistake. Overall Macron believes that the Union should first strenghten its institutions before it can expand further. His opponents state that his refusal will drive the Balkan-states into the hands of Russia, Turkey, China and other.
Since 2014 the European Union is negotiating with Serbia its admission to the Union. On 15 February 2016 Bosnia- Herzegovina formally asked to become member of the Union. Beginning 2018 the European Commission stated that Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro, North-Macedonia, Albania and Kosovo had a “perspective” on membership around 2025. It was clarified that “perspective” did not include a “deadline” and that every country would be assessed on its own merits.
We believe Macron has a point (or many points) :
First, the whole Balkan was a powder keg in the far away past, the recent past and still is a powder keg today. It’s inclusion in the Union will not automatically remove the risks from the region. On the contrary, it would introduce the Balkan instability into the Union. Enemies of the Union must love especially this scenario.
Currently, and based on on going discussions with states like Hungary and Poland, we see that the European Union has difficulties in imposing sanctions on some countries if needed. This kind of governance has to be brought to a higher level. The Union must be able to punish if needed.
Referring to Hungary and Poland we might question if the Union has already sufficiently absorbed the previous flow of entrants into the European union (the generation of 2004 and 2007). It is probably not wise to already add a new load of newcomers to the Union, which would also further shift the overall balance further to the East.
Yes, Russia, Turkey, China, the Saudi and the Qatari will try to strenghten their influence in the Balkan. They are doing that already today and they do not need a Union to proceed. If the Balkan states were members of the Union, there is no reason why external powers would be less energetic in striving for influence in these states. On the contrary, it would be an evident way of obtaining leverage in the Union. The Union should have instruments to deal with unwanted influence in its member states.